If we are to succeed in time, the most important thing to remember right now is that victory in Afghanistan is only possible through a victory in Pakistan. These two countries are now inextricably linked in this war. Pakistan screwed up in 2001 during the assault on Tora Bora. They were patrolling the Pakistani side of the border in order to intercept fleeing terrorists. Unfortunately, the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence: Pakistani version of the CIA), couldn't be trusted. Up until 9/11/01, the ISI had openly supported the Taliban, and many within the organization are still loyal to them. Many top terrorist leaders (possibly Bin Laden) managed to escape into Pakistan because operatives within the ISI probably allowed them to cross into North Waziristan, which is one the Pakistani side of the border. We can't change the past now. We have to adapt our strategy to the current situation.

There is one area in particular that we need to focus on. I am talking about the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the Pakistani side of the border. That is the pink area in the map above. The top Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders are hiding out in here. Unfortunately, this is a very difficult place for foreign militaries to operate. The British tried a long time ago to conquer this area. They threw more troops at them than were in the rest of the entire British Empire, and the British still lost. Many of these locals, especially in the Khyber Pass, are distant descendants of the armies of Alexander the Great. No foreign military has been able to survive there. That is why the Pakistani government has been unable to control these areas. Despite the fact that Pakistan has one of the most professional military forces in the third-world, they are still walking into a deathtrap any time they attempt to move into these areas. Unfortunately, this is the area that the terrorists are using as a safe haven from which to launch attacks into Afghanistan. This is where we must win if we are to stabilize Afghanistan. The people in these areas are highly supportive of the Taliban, which is due more to Pashtun nationalism than religious ideology. Pakistani Pashtuns are much more supportive of the Taliban than Afghan Pashtuns, who have had to live under their rule, are. This is also why many of the leaders in the Pakistani military are reluctant to intervene. We must also deal with factions of the ISI that are still loyal to the Taliban.

The Pakistani government is in a tough spot to be in. They were supportive of the Taliban until 9/11. Now they are co-operating with the United States, although elements of the ISI aren't. The Pakistani government cannot be seen as being to helpful to the United States. Any Pakistani politician that is perceived to be helping the United States is likely to end up like Benazir Bhutto. That is why when a hellfire missile from a US predator drone (I really like these things) that killed Abu Hamza (a bombmaker, not to be confused with the bomb maker Abu Hamza from the awesome movie, The Kingdom) was discovered, the Pakistani government tried to convince people that Abu Hamza was killed not by a US missile, but rather by one of his own bombs that went off accidentally. That is why the presence of US military in Pakistan must be denied by the Pakistani government (Our troops are there doing logistical functions, not combat operations). That is also why Musharraf has had numerous assassination attempts against him. The current president, Zardari, has already been targeted three times.

We have given $11 billion to the Pakistani government already to help them control these border regions. We have gotten very limited returns on that investment, although the Pakistanis did manage to capture Khalid Sheik Mohammed, who planned the 9/11 attack. Unfortunately, we are going to have to pay these duplicitous people even more. It looks as if both Obama and McCain are willing to do this. It shouldn't be any surprise that Obama likes to spend taxpayer dollars, but it does show that McCain gets it. We are going to have to give the Pakistanis whatever they need. If they can get these areas under control, then we should demand that they do so. If they cannot, then they should not have any problem with getting out of the way so that we can.

Unfornately, we will not be able to continue operations in Pakistan covertly anymore. Bush had given classified orders in July to do just that, and not inform the Pakistani government. The Pakistanis now know about it, so now Bush has said that we will continue to go after Al-Qaeda and Taliban targets in these tribal areas anyway, and tell the Pakistani government about it afterwards or during the operations. As surprising as this may be, Bush actually got this one right. The terrorists have made southern Afghanistan a very dangerous place. We cannot afford to wait on the Pakistanis to do something about it.

Pakistan will not tolerate this without responding. They are even threatening to protect their borders from the United States with military force if necessary. It may just be necessary. I am not eager to have our troops engage the Pakistani military, but it looks like we may have no choice. The Pakistanis are in the position where they must respond if they are to hold onto power in their own country.

That is also why we must be careful not to weaken the Pakistani military too much or destabilize the government. We cannot allow the terrorists to steal any of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, so the Pakistani government must stay in power.

US military presence in these tribal areas WILL result in an extreme surge in Islamic militarism. We WILL encounter fierce resistance, but if we cannot get the Pakistanis to operate in this area effectively, then we will have no other choice but to go in ourselves. This will be much more difficult than what we have encountered in Afghanistan so far, but if we do nothing, then the terrorists will continue to maintain their hold over southern Afghanistan, while Bin Laden and Zawahiri continue to remain safe in Pakistan.

We must also deal with the opium problem in Afghanistan, which funds terrorist networks. Obviously, we could take away alot of this black market funding by simply getting the Afghan government to legalize opium, but that is unlikely to happen. One way we can get around this is to introduce our own CIA trained operatives into the drug trade. If the Afghan government practices selective enforcement against the opium industry, we can create a competitive advantage for our durg runners, who will corner the market at the expense of the drug runners that don't like us very much.

We must also practice tough diplomacy with the dictatorship in Uzbekistan. The oppressive policies of Islam Karimov have led to a surge in recruitment for the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is allied with Al-Qaeda. We were using an old Sovet airbase in Uzbekistan that Putin allowed us to use. We were asked to leave in 2005, so we have nothing to lose from getting tough with that goverment. We must make it clear to Karimov that his actions are making our mission much more difficult in Afghanistan. If he insists on continuing to be a paranoid psychopath, then perhaps it may be time for his daughter, Gulnara Karimova to take over. This is one instance in which I may be in favor of regime change. Gulnara Karimova seems to be a more rational leader that we can work with, provided things imporve with the Russians.

Hopefully, these policy recommendations will help us succeed in Afghanistan. We must win, and we must win very soon. We are running out of time. There is a high probability that if we don't make significant gains soon, there may very well be another attack on the United States on the scale of 9/11, at the minimum.